Will the new housing bill increase the deficit by $100 billion just for Fannie and Freddie?
*Barron's, by Jonathan R. Laing, August 18, 2008:
"IT MAY BE CURTAINS SOON FOR THE MANAGEMENTS and shareholders of
beleaguered housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . It is growing
increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and
Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of
powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last
month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of
the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even
holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also
suffering losses. Barron's first raised the possibility of a government
takeover of Fannie and Freddie in a March 10 cover story, 'Is Fannie
Mae Toast?'
Many of Fannie's and Freddie's credit losses come from risky mortgages
that the agencies bought or guaranteed in recent years to boost their
market share.
Heaven knows, the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, both
need resuscitation. Soaring mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures
have led the companies to gush red ink for the past four quarters, and
their managements concede the outlook is even grimmer well into next
year. Shares of Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have
lost around 90% of their value in the past year, with Fannie now
trading at $7.91, and Freddie at $5.88.
Similarly, the balance sheets of both companies have been destroyed. On
a fair-value basis, in which the value of assets and liabilities is
marked to immediate-liquidation value, Freddie would have had a
negative net worth of $5.6 billion as of June 30, while Fannie's equity
eroded to $12.5 billion from a fair value of $36 billion at the end of
last year. That $12.5 billion isn't much of a cushion for a $2.8
trillion book of owned or guaranteed mortgage assets.
What's more, the fair-value figures reported by the companies may
overstate the value of their assets significantly. By some calculations
each company is around $50 billion in the hole. But more on that later."
*This information is solely a highlight of the opinion of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to this publication for the full and timely opinion of the author and call a Monex Account Representative for any additional up-to-date information. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.
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