What is going on with the stock market?
*Dow Theory Letters, by Richard Russell, January 14, 2011
”Perhaps Lord Keynes’ wisest admonition was when he said, ‘The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.’
Let’s take the current situation. The dollar is under attack, housing is still sick. Unemployment remains a chronic problem, stocks are rising on a sea of liquidity. Iran and North Korea both have nuclear capabilities and are both ‘wildly unstable.’ With this background, a stock market that is rising might easily be termed ‘irrational.’
I’m not the only analyst who considers a rising market in this area as ‘irrational.’ My strategy, in view of what I just wrote, is to stay solvent. What’s my strategy for remaining solvent? Easy, I feel more comfortable out of the stock market and on the sidelines. I’m not saying that the stock market isn’t going higher. My PTI and my Lowry’s studies say that it is. But this stock market advance is a ‘pitch’ that I’m not going to swing on. The bull market in gold is enough for me. I can sleep with my gold and silver positions. And frankly, I couldn’t sleep with a large position in the stock market. The reason — this market is too ‘irrational’ for me. And I don’t say it’s irrational because of outside news events. I’m not saying that it’s just the unsolved housing mess that bothers me. No, it’s the fact that the dividend yield on the S&P is a micro 1.86%.
Buying a selection of stocks when the dividend yield is flashing ‘danger’ is not my cup of tea. I’ve been around too long to feel that I have to be in the market every time it advances. There’ll be other opportunities; the market is always there.”
*This information is solely a highlight of the opinion of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to this publication for the full and timely opinion of the author and call a Monex Account Representative for any additional up-to-date information. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.