What do you see as the most serious danger signs facing the U.S. economy?
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People ask me all the time, "What are the danger signs that the aftershock might be coming and what to look for?" Some people say, "We just had a T-bill auction at 0%, doesn't that scare you?" Well it does in a way. On the other hand, it worked, right? So what really scares me is when it doesn't work. Let's say when the Fed does something positive and you get a negative reaction. For example fairly recently, the Fed decided that it wasn't going to raise interest rates although many people expected it to do so. The reaction was quite negative to that. The market went down and kept going down for a while. That's the kind of thing that I look for. To me, that's a danger sign. I said at the time, “That's not the aftershock. It's not the beginning of it. You could even have a rally after that,” which we did, but the point is that's what I want to look for. The real danger sign to me is when the Fed tries to do something good and instead it gets a bad reaction. That's the most important danger sign. Fundamentally, when they print money and the market goes down, and they print even more money to try to keep it from going down, and it goes down further. That's not just a danger sign, that's pretty much the start of the aftershock.