Is the credit crisis much more grave than what meets the eye?
"People do not have a clue what is really happening. All the talk everywhere, even by well placed people without a bone to grind politically and economically, keep calling this a failure in sub prime loans. This is presented as if securitized bonds (with the assumption that the collateral for the bonds were mortgages themselves) has lost all its value. This is not the case. What is worthless is a the mix of credit and default derivatives that make up the vast majority of many instruments held by financial and commercial paper dealing entities, both private and public.
Even if you forget that the economic figures recently released are whoppers and take them at face value as commentators are, you still have to ask why the equities market fails to do better. The answer is simple. Rallies in the equities are presently being supplied by those that understand the grave nature of the present problem.
This is why the attitude of the Fed is not commensurate with the gravity of the global problem being caused by the meltdown in credit and default derivatives.
If it was simple mortgages it isn’t apparent because as bad as the mortgage market is they have not all failed simultaneously as if all sub prime mortgage holders have been foreclosed on at once. That alone should give you a hint that the problem is not the advertised, but much larger.
The Fed altering their banking regulations has to give you a hint that the problem is not the advertised problem, but much larger.
The financial difficulty going global has to give you a hint that the problem is not the advertised problem, but much larger.
When you see bank after bank needing liquidity in substantial amounts, this has to give you a hint that the problem is not the advertised problem, but much larger
The hope for every central bank is that the real problem can be kept from public view. The truth is the public, even professionals in Wall Street, have no clue what the problem is. They know it has something to do with derivatives, but none realize it is a more than $20 trillion dollar mountain of unfunded, unregulated paper that has just been discovered to not have a market and therefore any real value.
This is why I have suggested you plan for the worst and hope for the best. Taking cautionary action before a problem occurs only requires some of your time. If you wait and try to clean up the mess after a problem happens usually there is no action that can be taken.
When the US dollar realizes the seriousness of this situation, be that now or sometime soon, the bottom will drop out."