“Since its October 11, 2007 bull market peak, the S&P has lost over 52.9% of its value. That represents one of the greatest losses in a limited amount of time in stock market history. It should be noted that historically, bear markets tend to last one-quarter to one-third as long as the preceding bull market.
The bull market of 1982 to 2007 lasted 25 years. This means that the current bear market could last 6 to 8 years or to 2013 to 2015. So far, the current bear market, even if it halts here, must be labeled a major bear market. Historically, most bear markets end with stocks selling ‘below known values.’ In the past, ‘below known values’ has meant the Dow selling at 5-7 times earnings while the dividend yield was 6% or more. If that is to be the case for this bear market, we can expect the Dow to decline to at least the low 5000s.”
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