---
title: "Gold & Silver: Seasonality, Volatility, and Geopolitics Explained"
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# Gold & Silver: Seasonality, Volatility, and Geopolitics Explained

Sean Brazney and Jeffrey Christian · March 11, 2026

[Watch Video](https://player.vimeo.com/video/1172774283)

## Video Transcript

**Jeffrey Christian:** You have a whole lot of issues going on that could override that seasonality. So, our view is if you see lower prices, it’s a good time to buy, because the economic and political environment is not getting better.

**Introduction:**Anchors in a Shifting World–The Strategic Case for Precious Metals with MONEX and CPM Group.

**Sean Brazney:** We had our foot on the gas pedal for what seemed like six months. Really, it was started in September and straight through to January into February with the precious metals market and some really off the charts volatility. We come into March and it’s like somebody put the brakes on. Open interest is down. Volume is down. I’ve got investors that now are cautious. It seems like four weeks ago, all I heard was silver is going to $300 by the summer and gold’s going to $10,000, and now I get investors telling me, well, you know, let me take a wait and see approach. I’m wondering what kind of data you have for us that really is a reminder to these investors that this may not be the time to sit on the sidelines.

**Jeffrey Christian:** Actually, this may be the time to accumulate, to be honest. I think there are several things going on. One is, I think a lot of investors have gotten tired of that $10,000 gold, $300 silver, and there’s some skepticism. There’s also this historic thing that a lot of gold and silver investors don’t like to tell their friends that they invest in gold and silver, because the friends will say, “Oh, you’re one of those crazy guys,” and I think that’s going on. But, there’s also the prices have risen so far over the last six months, since the beginning of September, and there is sort of like a digestion period or gestation period going on right now. Now, if you look at the seasonality of gold and silver prices, they often are very strong in the first three or four months of the year, and then they kind of plateau in the second and third quarters, and then pick up toward the end of the year. I think a number of investors are saying, “Okay, we’ve already risen very high.” Gold is trading $50 around $5,200 today. Just unprecedented levels, silver has been bouncing around $90 today, like $85 to $90 and I think a lot of investors are saying, “What happens next? Are we going to see this summer plateau? Or are things so crazy and so disorganized politically and economically that this continues? “ and our answer is we’re not sure. I do know that events override seasonality. So, you can look at last year, the price of gold and silver rose very sharply January, February into April, and then they did in fact plateau, even though there was a lot of weird things going on politically and economically. Then after the Fed’s conference in Wyoming at the end of August, the prices took off. So, now we’re in this period where a lot of investors are saying, “Is this digestion? Do we plateau or do we keep going higher?” and our advice to our clients has been, if you see the price plateau, it’s probably a good time to buy, because all of those economic and political factors haven’t gone away. They’ve gotten worse.

We’re…now, we’ve attacked Iran. That opens the gate for China to do something against Taiwan. We pulled our missiles, our defense system, out of South Korea, and we’ve delayed delivering defensive weapons to Taiwan. I think the only thing holding China back is that there has been this purge of hundreds of high level Chinese military personnel over the last several months. I think the Chinese military has said, we don’t want to go into Taiwan. That would not work, but you also have Russia moving troops over toward the Baltic States, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Which they have said, we want to reclaim them the same way we want to reclaim Ukraine. So, the US being distracted in Iran and the US going into Iran sort of opens the gates for these other two countries to be more militaristic. So, there’s a lot of really big international risks and then there’s a lot of national risks. DHS has been shut down. TSA had three-hour backups at various airports. You have a whole lot of issues going on that could override that seasonality. So, our view is if you see lower prices, it’s a good time to buy, because the economic and political environment is not getting better.