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How do you feel the Trump presidency will affect the stock markets and gold prices in 2017 and beyond?

Jeff Christian
January 12, 2017
Video Transcript

Jeff Christian: There's a great deal of uncertainty of what a Trump presidency will bring to the world and to the economy and to the United States. I'm not going to pretend to have an idea of how it's all going to shake out. What we can say is that a lot of what he wants to do will run into the limitations of Presidential power. We can also say that there are a couple of things that he can do where he won't run into massive lobbyists trying to impede his way. One of them is a tax cut, especially for the wealthy and corporations. No one in Congress is going to vote, well maybe Bernie Sanders will vote, against a tax cut for the wealthy and corporations. When that tax cut is made and that will probably happen early in the year, and they're talking about making in retroactive for 2016 tax years. That would bring a lot of money into corporations and wealthy individual's portfolios. That money is likely to go into stock buybacks for the corporations and stock purchases for the investors, as opposed to real investments. When you see that the stock prices will rise, you'll have the sugar-high, because of the decline in the number of shares outstanding and this one-time increase in the amount of money. That will then lead foreign investors to want to buy U.S. dollars so that they can purchase and participate in the stock market. Consequence is that we think that this will lead to higher stock prices and a higher dollar in the first half of 2017. Once you get beyond that one-time deal though, and by the time you get into the middle or last half of 2017, they'll be a much more realistic view as to what the Trump presidency can do and can't do or will do and won't do. You'll have had interest rates rise one, two or three times. So, interest rates will be maybe 50 basis points higher than they are today.

You will have an economy which is already long in the tooth and showing constraints, in terms of lower unemployment, higher constraint on industrial production and a variety of other factors. You'll have an economy that's looking much more top-heavy and you'll have a stock market that's looking extremely top-heavy. So, we think that the second half of 2017 starts to see an acceleration in gold prices. So, that by the end of the year, we may see gold prices 10% higher than they are today. Once you get beyond the second half of 2017, we wouldn't be surprised to see even higher gold prices, worsening economic situations, you'll have a bourgeoning of the annual Federal deficit, because of the tax cuts regardless of whether there's any infrastructure there. You're going to have a variety of other factors and we think that you'll see an acceleration in investment demand. Our expectations are that you have an economic and political environment that's going to be inciting investors to buy more gold again, as they have been over the last...most of the last... 17 years. In addition to that, you have fundamentals. You'll have a higher investment demand, and when the investors get there they're going to find Central Banks are buying more gold, and beyond 2018 we think mine production starts to fall sharply, constraining supply. So, you put the tighter fundamentals of gold together with an economic and political environment stimulating investors to buy more gold. We think that you'll see nominal record gold prices beyond 2020. So, within 3 to 5 years, or 3 to 10 years for sure, we think that you'll see record gold prices.

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