Gold 
“Bank of America sees gold as a central portfolio hedge and an important source of returns in 2026, arguing that the metal stands out as production tightens and earnings remain highly leveraged to gold prices.
“Looking ahead to 2026, we think gold continues to stand out as a portfolio hedge and a source of potential alpha,” analyst Lawson Winder said in a note, while adding that silver may be more suitable for investors willing to take on higher risk in search of upside relative to gold.
The bank’s 2026 view is underpinned by expectations for lower gold supply and rising costs. Winder estimates total gold production for the 13 North American precious metals stocks it covers will fall 2% in 2026 to 19.2 million ounces, and argues that consensus forecasts remain too optimistic.
He also expects average all-in sustaining costs to rise 3% year on year to about $1,600 per ounce, slightly above market expectations.
Winder also forecasts a sharp improvement in profitability, with total EBITDA for the group seen rising 41% to roughly $65 billion in 2026.
BofA’s price outlook reflects this constructive stance. Winder sees gold averaging $4,538 per ounce in 2026 in real terms, alongside higher expected prices for silver, platinum and palladium.
The outlook follows an exceptional 2025 for precious metals. Gold rose 65% last year, while silver surged 148%, and precious metals equities substantially outperformed bullion prices. Both metals set multiple records in 2025, including gold’s peak at $4,533 per ounce and silver’s move to $79 per ounce.
Winder also highlighted silver’s strong momentum into late 2025, describing its outperformance as a catch-up after lagging gold earlier in the cycle.
For 2026, the analyst argues that the current gold-to-silver ratio of about 59x points to further potential outperformance by silver relative to gold.
He notes that past cycle lows in the ratio, seen in 1980 and 2011 at 14x and 32x respectively, imply significantly higher silver prices at today’s gold levels.
Based on the 2011 low, silver would equate to roughly $135 per ounce, rising to about $309 per ounce using the 1981 low.”
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