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Geopolitical Uncertainty
June 5, 2025

Is higher US crude output or a possible ceasefire causing oil to fall?

From Arathy Somasekhar in 4/30 Reuters.com in
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“Oil prices extended losses and fell 1% on Tuesday on the back of rising U.S. crude production, as well as hopes of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

Brent crude futures for June, which expire on Tuesday, were down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $87.8 a barrel by 12:40 p.m. ET (1640 GMT). The more active July contract fell 97 cents, or 1.1%, to $86.21.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 83 cents, or 1%, at $81.82.

The front-month contract for both benchmarks lost more than 1% on Monday.

U.S. crude production rose to 13.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in February from 12.58 million bpd in January in its biggest monthly increase since October 2021, the Energy Information Administration said. Meanwhile, exports climbed to 4.66 million bpd from 4.05 million bpd in the same period.

Expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown in recent days following a renewed push led by Egypt to revive stalled negotiations between the two.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Tuesday to go ahead with a long-promised assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

“Traders believe some of the geopolitical risk is being taken out of the market,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

“We’re not seeing any global supply being taken off the market.”

Continued attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on maritime traffic south of the Suez Canal – an important trading route – have provided a floor for oil prices and could prompt higher risk premiums if the market expects crude supply disruptions.”

*This information is solely an excerpt of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to the referenced publication for the full article. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.

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