Is platinum on track for its biggest monthly rise in almost 40 years?

“The S&P 500’s return to record territory in June wowed investors, but it has nothing on a jaw-dropping surge in platinum prices, with the precious metal on track for a 28% monthly rise, the largest in close to 40 years.

A global supply shortage of platinum since 2023 contributed to the metal’s rise this week, bringing prices to their highest in more than a decade. But one veteran futures analyst said the market isn’t signaling that to be the case.

Much of the chatter surrounding platinum is about tight supplies, but the forward curve in futures prices does not confirm this, said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.

If platinum’s forward curve is not indicating an extremely short supply situation, and funds and investment traders are starting to get out of their net-long positions, “what we are seeing could be considered a blow-off top, from a technical point of view,” he said. A blow-off top is defined as a sharp rise in an asset’s price followed by a sharp and quick decline.

The most-active October platinum contract PLV25 +0.97% PL00 +0.99% settled at $1,351.90 an ounce on Friday, down 4.5%.

As of Friday, it’s up about 28.1% month to date, which would be the biggest monthly gain since August 1986, according to Dow Jones Market Data, far outperforming gold GC00 +1.35%, which has lost 0.8% in June, and a nearly 19% monthly rise in sister metal palladium PA00 +0.71%. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.07% touched a fresh record high Friday, trading up around 4% in June.

Prices for platinum contracts expiring in the months ahead, however, are trading even higher than current prices, with the April 2026 contract PLJ26 +0.60% at $1,363.10, and October 2026 PLV26 +0.89% at $1,373.60. That indicates a situation in the futures market called contango.

Contango suggests that “supply and demand isn’t as concerning,” compared with when the market is in backwardation — a situation in which prices for futures contracts further out are lower than current prices, said Newsom. When the market is in backwardation, it suggests that “supplies are tight in relation to demand.”

Meanwhile, looking at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report for positions as of June 17, noncommercial traders were still holding net-long futures positions in platinum, said Newsom.

The report shows that noncommercial interests — funds and investment traders — held a net long futures position of 23,227 contracts. That’s a decrease of 3,752 contracts from the previous week.

So the contango situation in the futures market and decline in net long futures positions among noncommercial traders may point to a “blow-off top” for prices ahead, said Newsom.

Still, the rally in platinum prices so far this year has been attributed to a shortage of supplies of the metal as well as a shift in jewelry demand due to record-high prices for gold. The World Platinum Investment Council expects 2025 to mark a third straight year with a deficit of almost 1 million troy ounces. Platinum, meanwhile, is priced at less than half the cost of gold, which finished Thursday at $3,348 an ounce.

Platinum futures settled Thursday at $1,415, the highest finish for a most-active contract since Aug. 29, 2014.

Brian Larose, a commodity strategist at ICAP Technical Analysis, told MarketWatch that he had been “wildly bullish” on platinum based on its chart pattern since early May.

Platinum prices have had a “big run since bottoming in April and breaking out in mid-May,” said Brian Larose, commodity strategist at ICAP.

“It had been my contention that platinum had been underpriced vs. gold/silver/bitcoin and recognition of this would eventually drive prices higher to ‘catch up’,” he said.

Platinum has had a big run since bottoming in April and breaking out mid-May and just took out the February 2021 high, Larose said.

Given that, the metal is “‘technically’ deserving of a break,” but he said he does not believe that the advance in prices is done.”