Palladium Market Outlook – August 2026

Palladium Price Outlook

“Palladium prices have been gradually rising since late June. They faced considerable resistance around the $1,320 level for much of July but were able to break above that level in August. The sustainability of these price gains will depend on a variety of factors. The initial gains appear to reflect the market having become oversold between the end of January and the middle of June 2026. The palladium market balance is projected to continue tightening during 2026, with the potential to move into a small deficit. If this deficit materializes it would be the first of its kind since 2019.

This tightening of the market balance during 2026 is being driven almost entirely by a decline in supply, particularly mine supply from Russia, where a decline in mine output from Nornickel is expected to reduce Russian palladium mine supply by 10% this year. This is a meaningful decline in output, given that Russia accounts for around 42% of global palladium mine supply. In addition, mine production is also expected to decline in Canada this year as Impala Platinum’s Lac des Iles mine prepares for closure next year. It should be noted that Impala originally planned to close the mine in 2026, but the sharp gains in platinum group metal prices last year prompted the company to delay the closure until 2027. This is worth keeping in mind because continued strength in palladium prices during the second half of this year could again result in the mine’s closure being postponed. That said, Canada’s contribution to global palladium mine supply is much smaller, at around 6.5%, making the decline in Russian production the primary factor contributing to market tightness this year.”

The full Precious Metals Advisory report is available directly from CPM Group. For more information, visit their website, www.cpmgroup.com