
“Palladium prices had the weakest performance in July among the exchange traded precious metals. This is not entirely surprising given the weakness in palladium market fundamentals.
Palladium prices are likely to continue trading in a sideways fashion with a downward bias. Seasonal weakness in prices is likely to have a more pronounced impact on palladium given the metal’s weak fundamentals. That said, the palladium price has already weakened a lot, which could slow, but not stop, further weakness in palladium prices.
Palladium prices could move between $1,200 and $1,330, with a higher probability of spending more time at the lower end of this range. If prices break below the $1,200 support level, prices could fall toward $1,120.
For palladium prices to rise forcefully would require a supply side shock. There is some risk of supply side disruptions out of South Africa’s mining sector. Concerns over such a risk should be expected to provide support to prices but would be unlikely to drive prices higher unless there is an actual disruption.”
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