Palladium Price Outlook – February 2024

“Palladium prices have continued on their downward trajectory during the first few weeks of 2024. While prices remain vulnerable to some further downside, a lot of the weakness in the market’s fundamentals have been priced in and further weakness in palladium prices is likely to be more gradual. A near parity with platinum prices, a possible slowing in the uptake of electric vehicles this year, and the likely reduction in mine supply especially at the higher cost South African mines are all factors that could provide support to palladium prices. That said, the ongoing electrification of the world’s automobiles, a massive amount of metal held by inventory holders, which could potentially come back into the market, and the coming onstream of some palladium intensive mine projects in the next few years are all factors that will continue act as a headwind to palladium prices.

Palladium prices are likely to move between $800 and $1,000 over the next few months. as with platinum, a broad market sell off could pressure palladium prices lower. If inflation starts to pick up because of the ongoing strength in the economy it is likely to result in rates being kept higher for longer, which coupled with various political issues around the world could make the global economy vulnerable to a more severe recession. Given palladium’s dependence on economic growth, for its fabrication demand, any actual weakness or possibility of future weakness is expected to weigh on palladium prices.”