“Palladium Price Outlook
After falling sharply during 2023, palladium prices are expected to remain under pressure during 2024. Various challenges that the market faced in 2023 remain in place. The substitution of palladium with platinum in auto catalysts and the ongoing increase in electric vehicle market share are expected to continue in 2024 weighing on palladium fabrication demand. If economic growth slows, as the year progresses, passenger vehicle demand could slow even further, weighing on palladium fabrication demand and prices.
The supply side of the market is likely to help provide some support to palladium prices. There are concerns regarding a decline in mine supply, especially out of South Africa. The weakness in the platinum group metal (PGM) basket prices has turned several PGM mines into loss making units. This coupled with an ongoing issue related to South African power supply could result in a reduction or disruption to palladium supply.
Palladium prices are forecast to average $997.60 in 2024, down 25.4% from 2023 levels. The sharp decline in annual average prices is the result of how high palladium prices were during the first half of 2023. Prices had averaged $1,500 during the first half of 2023, around 1.5 times the current prices. The annual average for 2024 is around present levels. While palladium prices have several headwinds, especially on the fabrication demand side, supply side concerns and investor interest in the metal at current levels could help to buoy palladium prices during 2024.”
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