“Palladium prices were unable to forcefully break above the $1,000 level toward the end of March and into first few days of April, with the reciprocal tariff announcement knocking prices down to $870.50 on an intraday basis on 7 April. While prices have recovered from those lows they still remain below $1,000 and are likely to find it challenging to break above a $1,000 an ounce if prospects for economic growth remain weak. There has been some uptick in passenger vehicle demand, with consumers trying to front run the implementation of tariffs in early May. And while that is short-term supportive of palladium prices, it is negative for palladium fabrication demand from the auto sector in the medium term.
Given the industrial nature of palladium, slowing economic growth will not bode well for the metal in the coming quarters. Another important use of palladium is in the electronics industry. For now, reciprocal tariffs on electronic imports from China have been paused but a 20% tariff related to fentanyl trafficking remains. Electronics is one of the largest imports into the U.S. from China. A 20% tariff is still fairly high and if consumers do not fare well economically, they are more likely to pull back on making purchases irrespective of the level of tariff.”
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