“Unlike the other precious metals covered in this report, palladium prices did not stage a recovery over the course of October. Instead, prices failed to even break above the $1,200 level, which had provided strong support to palladium prices since June 2023, and slipped lower
touching an intraday low of $1,088 on 23 October, which was the lowest level that palladium prices have been at since late 2018. Prices have been consolidating around the $1,100 level and despite heading into a seasonally strong period, there is a chance that palladium prices
could experience some more weakness.
An ongoing increase in battery electric vehicle market share and the partial substitution of palladium with platinum in gasoline autocatalyst is expected to act as a meaningful headwind to palladium prices. A decline in palladium prices to $975 or even $925 cannot be ruled
out. That said, seasonal strength in prices is likely to keep palladium prices drifting around the $1,100 level. On the upside, palladium prices now have resistance at the $1,200 level and to be able to break above that would require some positive fundamental impulse, which probably can come from some sort of supply related disruption.”
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