“Palladium Price Outlook
At the start of October palladium prices fell slightly below $1,150, their lowest level since 2018. Prices had been holding above $1,200 for the most part since the end of June 2023. A broad market selloff, which started in the last week of September, pushed palladium prices below this support level that had held up well for one quarter of this year. Like the other precious metals, palladium prices are at risk of further weakness in the short term but could see some recovery in prices as the year progresses.
The palladium market’s fundamentals have been weak for some time now. They have been particularly hurt by the ongoing increase in electric vehicle market share and the partial substitution of palladium with platinum in gasoline auto catalyst. The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike in the United States and the reduced risk of loadshedding in South Africa are expected to add further downward pressure on palladium prices.
Seasonal strength in demand for palladium during the fourth and first quarter of the calendar year could help to provide some support to palladium prices, but these forces may not be enough to lead to a significant rebound in palladium prices.
Palladium prices are expected to consolidate in the near term, with the potential to soften further. Initial support for prices is at $1,100 but a drop to $1,000 or $900 cannot be completely ruled out at this time. On the upside, palladium prices have initial resistance at $1,200.”
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