Palladium Price Outlook – September 2024

“Palladium Price Outlook
The declining trend in palladium remains intact. Palladium prices did rise in August, alongside other markets, but they were making lower highs than they did in the preceding months of this year. In early August, when all markets declined in response to the weakness in the U.S. jobs market, palladium prices fell strongly reaching their lowest level since June 2017. This weakness was the outcome of both the broad market movements as well as somewhat weak palladium market fundamentals.

Palladium prices are likely to face an even more challenging environment going forward, if market anxiety about an economic slowdown rises. Palladium fabrication demand comes primarily from the passenger vehicle sector and consumers will pull back on making purchases of large ticket items like cars. Another important source of palladium demand is electronics, and there has been some strength coming from this source during 2024 largely due to weakness over the past two years, but consumers and business will also cull this expense if economic conditions start to deteriorate. Any concerns of an economic slowdown or an actual economic slowdown will hurt palladium prices in the coming months.

There are some factors that could provide support to palladium prices in the next few months, while these factors are expected to be supportive, they are not necessarily expected to help drive palladium prices higher, at least not in any meaningful way. These factors include a slowdown in electric vehicle demand, an ongoing purchase of large vehicles in the U.S., and the typical increase in seasonal demand from the auto sector during the fall and winter. Palladium prices are expected to linger for the most part, between the $880 and $980 level during the remainder of the year, with the potential for prices to test $820 or even $800.”