Platinum Price Outlook
“Platinum has been rangebound since early March, reflecting a balance between supportive supply and demand fundamentals and a less favorable macroeconomic back-drop. While the market has thus far maintained support near the $1,800 level, a break below this threshold cannot be ruled out over the coming months. Most of the upward movement in the past 12 months has reflected investor and trade buying in a fundamentally tightly balanced market; any withdrawal of investor interest could end the rally.
Near-term risks remain tilted to the downside. Seasonal weakness, elevated energy prices, and the potential for higher inflation could all weigh on investor sentiment as well as reduce fabrication demand especially in the auto markets around the world. Much of the investor buying interest since last May has been predicated in large part to investor optimism about auto industry platinum demand, so weakness in the auto industry demand for platinum due to weaker sales and production has a double-barreled effect on prices, with lower auto industry fabrication demand joined by lower investor interest due to auto demand optimism fading. Higher energy costs not only increase inflationary pressures but may also accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, creating an additional headwind for longer-term automotive platinum demand.”
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