Platinum Market Outlook – May 2024

“Platinum Price Outlook
All the gains that platinum prices made during the first half of April were lost during the second half of the month. Platinum prices have essentially been moving in a sideways fashion since July last year. Prices have largely been moving between $880 and $1,000 since the middle of last year.

There have been some positive developments for the platinum group metal (PGM) markets in recent months, one in particular being the slowdown in adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which do not use PGM bearing catalysts. Platinum demand also is being supported by ongoing strength in most major commercial vehicle markets.

These positive factors should help keep platinum prices supported in the near term, along with lower South African mine output. However, potential weakness in gold and silver markets and prices, and seasonal weakness across precious metals markets are likely to weigh on platinum prices.

While the adoption of BEVs is showing signs of slowing this year, it does not mean it is the end for EVs. Price cuts, an increase in choices of electric vehicles, and a steady build out of charging infrastructure will eventually help demand in the long run, which is likely to make investors skeptical about getting too optimistic regarding the PGMs.

There are longer term issues that could further slow consumer acceptance of BEVs, but the trend remains upward. Furthermore, the decreased adoption of EVs is in line with CPM ’s analytic conclusions over at least the past seven years, which is that the growth of BEV and hybrid markets and light duty vehicle market share would be much slower than many public projections had it. CPM ’s 95 -page Platinum Group Metals Projections to 2050 long -term supply, demand, and price report outlines CPM ’s projections of BEV and hybrid vehicle market growth through the middle of this century, and is available from CPM as well as via LSEG, Bloomberg, and brokers engaging in soft-dollar research payments.

The most important factor that is supportive of platinum prices is the potential for short -term disruptions to mine supply and the high potential for reduced mine supply in the long -term.

Platinum prices are expected to remain in the range they have been in since the middle of last year. Prices have good support around the $880 level, and for prices to break below this level would require some sort of a demand shock, which is not expected at least over the next few months. Meanwhile on the upside, platinum has strong resistance around $1,000, which coupled with some of the external headwinds like weakness in other precious metals will be hard to break above in any sustainable way, unless there is some sort of a supply disruption.”