“Platinum prices drifted gently higher over the course of March, but were still well below levels seen at the start of January 2023. Platinum prices are expected to move in a sideways fashion between $965 and $1,075 over the next few months.
The primary support for platinum prices comes from the ongoing concerns about disruptions to refined supply out of South Africa, where electricity shortages threaten to halt ore processing facilities. South African platinum group metal (PGM) mining companies have warned of such potential disruptions and if these disruptions materialize it could push platinum prices beyond the $1,075 level. Platinum mine supply is extremely concentrated, with a little over 70% of global platinum mine output coming from South Africa. Because of this concentration, even the possibility of a supply disruption from South Africa is sufficient to keep platinum prices supported.
The demand side picture for platinum is less compelling, however. Slowing economic growth globally could hurt demand for commercial vehicles. So far this year demand for commercial vehicles has been mixed, but this could change as the year progresses and the full impact of monetary policy tightening is felt.
There are factors that are expected to support platinum fabrication demand such as the ongoing substitution of palladium with platinum in gasoline auto catalysts and stricter emissions standards for heavy duty vehicles in China. But an overall weakness in the auto sector due to macroeconomic factors could overshadow any positive impact from substitution or tighter emissions standards.”
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