
“Platinum prices rose during July, but struggled to break over $1,000, which has been an important level of resistance. At the time of writing this report, platinum prices had fallen back toward $930. Prices are expected to test the $900 level, which has been a level of support for the platinum market in recent months.
While platinum has the healthiest supply and demand fundamentals of the three platinum group metals (PGMs) covered in this report, the fundamentals are not sufficiently strong to combat both seasonal weakness in prices and broader weakness in the PGM sector due to the relatively weaker fundamentals of the other metals. If prices were to break below $900, the next area of support for platinum is the $830 level.
Economic conditions have held up well in most parts of the world so far this year and last, which has helped support demand for commercial vehicles. Economic conditions could slow in the coming quarters. While recessionary conditions are not expected until perhaps next year, a slowdown in economic growth could be expected as the cumulative impact of monetary policy and fiscal constraints along with real economy supply constraints of goods and services as well as slowing business and consumer demand for goods and services combine to start working their way through the economy. Platinum potential supply side risks, from mine supply disruptions in South Africa, are expected to provide support to prices. However, for prices to rise due to this supply side risk, an actual disruption of supply would be needed.”
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