“After falling strongly at the beginning of this year, platinum prices have been consolidating with support at the $880 level. Platinum prices have largely been moving between $880 and $940. Platinum prices seem most likely to continue in a sideways fashion with a slight downside bias in the near future. While platinum prices are not expected to rise sharply in coming months, they are not expected to fall too sharply either. Platinum mining companies are expected to start scaling back production, especially at high-cost mines, which coupled with the ongoing possibility of mine supply disruptions in South Africa, due to electricity shortages, are expected to keep platinum prices supported. An increase in demand for hybrid electric vehicles, which use platinum group metal (PGM) catalyst, and the ongoing substitution of palladium with platinum in gasoline auto catalysts also are expected to provide support for prices.
That said, macroeconomic headwinds and reduced tailwinds from seasonal price strength are expected to weigh on platinum in the near term. Interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, which could start to hurt commercial vehicle demand. Business sentiment, which is an important driver of commercial vehicle demand, as well as consumer sentiment, which is an important driver of passenger vehicles, could also start to soften as the year progresses when the impact of higher rates is more fully felt in the economy. Sentiment among both businesses and consumers has been softening in recent months.
Platinum prices have good support at the $880 level. That said, prices could slip below these levels and a retest of $830 cannot be ruled out. A sharper decline in platinum prices is not expected and if it does occur it is not expected to be sustainable. While platinum is faced with various headwinds, a lot of the bad news for the metal is already baked into the price. On the upside, platinum has meaningful resistance around the $950 level. If this level is broken a brief technical driven run up to $1,000 is quite possible.”
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