Platinum Price Outlook
"Platinum Price Outlook
Platinum prices were range bound during September, broadly moving between $800 and $940. Platinum demand continues to struggle with demand in most major commercial vehicle markets still remaining weak. Seasonal strength and some concerns regarding supply are expected to provide support to platinum prices.
Neither the price positive nor price negative factors that are currently in play seem strong enough at this time to push platinum prices forcefully out of the $800 to $965 range that the metal has been stuck in since the middle of June this year. Platinum prices are likely to remain in this range unless there is some fresh supply or demand factor to move platinum prices. On the demand side, the reintroduction of platinum in gasoline autocatalysts is a positive, however, the overall softness in vehicle demand is to a large extent offsetting this positive fundamental. Meanwhile, the mine supply disruptions out of the United States and South Africa are supportive of prices but are already factored into current pricing.
Commercial vehicle demand remains weak across most major markets. The United States has been doing relatively better than most other major commercial vehicle markets. Commercial vehicle sales in the United States during the first eight months of this year are down 0.9% over the same period in 2021. This compares with double digit declines in other major markets. The relatively better economic conditions in the United States compared to Europe, China, and Japan can help to explain the United States’ relatively better performance. But in addition to this, it should also be noted that commercial vehicle sales in the United States during 2021 did not set a particularly high bar. U.S. commercial vehicle sales during the first eight months of 2021 were around 16% lower than the cumulative sales for the same period in 2019. The bottom line is that commercial vehicle demand is weak and is likely to weaken further as the rising cost of borrowing acts as a drag on economic growth."