Precious Metals Review

“Gold prices edged lower on Friday and were headed for ‌a weekly loss, as concerns about sticky inflation, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve policymakers, and higher US Treasury yields dented bullion’s appeal.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,274.18 per ounce by 10:00 a.m. ​ET (1400 GMT). Prices were headed for a weekly loss, down about 2.4% so ​far. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,310.80.

“The unrelenting surge in Treasury ⁠yields has set gold on course for its 4th weekly decline over the ​past five weeks,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit.

US Treasury yields were ​higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“The zero-yielding precious metal has struggled against a cacophony of headwinds, including persistent upside inflation risks, runaway Treasury yields, and a hawkish Fed,” Tan added.

Since ​the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran, rising energy prices kept inflation ​concerns alive, forcing central banks to adopt tighter policy frameworks to keep price pressures under check.

The ‌Fed raised ⁠interest rates by a quarter-point last week, its first increase in three years, and signalled more hikes ahead. Traders are pricing in a 64% chance of an October hike and a 93% chance of one in December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Gold ​is traditionally considered ​an inflation hedge and ⁠a safe investment during geopolitical uncertainty. However, higher interest rates tarnish its attractiveness as investors turn to yield-bearing assets. Bullion has ​fallen about 19% from its February 27 session high.

Negotiators in ​New York ⁠are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, according to sources. Oil ⁠prices dropped ​more than 1% as some supply fears eased.

Spot ​silver lost 0.1% to $63.84 per ounce, platinum added 0.4% to $1,755.25, and palladium fell 1.6% to $1,252.62. All three metals ​were poised for weekly losses.”

“UBS raised its palladium price forecasts for late 2026 and early 2027, citing tighter physical market conditions despite maintaining a cautious long-term view on the white metal. The bank lifted its December 2026 and March 2027 forecasts by $200 per ounce and its June 2027 forecast by $100 per ounce.

Palladium prices have performed better than UBS expected as physical fundamentals point to a tighter market. Global palladium demand declined only modestly in 2025 and is forecast to remain broadly stable in 2026.

The slower-than-anticipated transition away from internal combustion engines has supported demand, with hybrid vehicle adoption in gasoline-heavy markets such as the US, Brazil, and parts of Asia continuing to drive autocatalyst consumption.

Palladium’s widening discount to platinum is improving the economics of substituting palladium back into autocatalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles. The long-term demand outlook for palladium remains negative due to transport electrification and the expected decline in internal combustion-engine vehicle production.

Global mine production declined in 2025 and is expected to contract again in 2026. Russian output is being affected by declining ore grades, while South African producers continue to prioritize capital discipline over volume growth.

Recycling is improving but offsets only part of the weakness in mined supply. The tighter supply backdrop is likely to limit price downside this year, according to UBS.”