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Geopolitical Uncertainty
February 23, 2026

What is driving the six month high for Oil?

From Seher Dareen and Enes Tunagur in 9/23 Reuters.com in
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“Oil prices reached a six-month high on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks while increased economic uncertainty was also in focus after the latest U.S. tariff upheaval.

Brent crude futures were up 62 cents or nearly 0.9% at $72.38 a barrel, a fresh six-month high, by 1432 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 69 cents or 1% to $67.17.

Growing concern over potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent prices up more than 5% last week to their highest since July 2025 at $72.34.

“With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on U.S. imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff programme.

“This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a U.S. military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed,” PVM’s Varga said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of Thursday’s third round of nuclear talks between the two nations.

While prices on paper had moved higher, softer prompt spreads and weaker physical differentials pointed to pricing being based on geopolitical concerns rather than an actual lack of oil in the market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.”

*This information is solely an excerpt of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to the referenced publication for the full article. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.

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