
“In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, released Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials indicated they see the economic outlook improving marginally through the end of the year.
The Fed’s projection for growth in gross domestic product increased to 2.1% from the 1.0% forecast in June. Policy makers reduced their forecast for the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 4.1% in June. That would leave it unchanged from the 3.8% recorded for August.
Policy makers also expect core inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price growth, to end the year at 3.7%, down from the 3.9% forecast over the summer.
Core PCE excludes the more volatile food and energy costs and is seen as a more consistent gauge of inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed during his speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference last month that the central bank is focused on this economic indicator.
The bank’s long-term target for the inflation rate is 2%.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Fed’s estimates showed little change, with policy makers predicting slightly higher GDP growth and lower unemployment than in June. The forecast for core PCE inflation remained steady, with Fed officials expecting price growth to decline to 2.6% by the end of next year.
Longer-run projections remained relatively unchanged with the Fed anticipating core PCE inflation will tumble to 2.2% by the end of 2025.”
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