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Geopolitical Uncertainty
January 23, 2008

Will the Fed have to use monetary inflation to deal with an economic crisis?

Oil War Economy

"Crisis Far from Over, Even with Emergency Cut

The Federal Reserve's huge emergency rate cut on Tuesday did little to allay fears of a brewing U.S. recession even though panic selling in global stock markets has moderated.

The three-quarters of a percentage point cut in the Fed's short-term interest rate target, to 3.5 percent, has helped restore some investor confidence, reflected in the rebound in many overseas stock markets.

Even so, many investors continue to brace for a recession. Major U.S. stock indexes closed down more than 1 percent after the Fed's aggressive move, although they recovered from severe declines shortly after the market opening.

'It's simply now a consumer-led mild recession that will show up in the first- and second-quarter GDP numbers in the negative -- with a minus sign,' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pimco, or Pacific Investment Management Co.

The slide in housing prices and the risk that consumers will close their wallets, if they have not already, are the bigger worries, he said in an interview with Reuters."

*This information is solely an excerpt of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to the referenced publication for the full article. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.

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