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September 21, 2011

Will the gold bull market see its ups and downs?

''It's impossible to miss the bullish sentiment that's taken control of the world gold market in recent months.  September's new all-time high of $1920.24 an ounce, more than $400 up on the metal's price at the start of July, says it all.

Over recent months, despite some softness following each new record -- as per usual in all financial markets -- it has been hard to find someone to say a bad word against the darling of the investor world.

But it seems there actually is one thing that can turn bankers, miners, refiners and the like a little less positive on bullion -- and it turns out that thing is a mere 24 hours in a Montreal hotel, rubbing shoulders non-stop with their gold sector peers.

Yes, hard to believe, but it appears -- at least according to the London Bullion Market Association's polling statistics (and statistics, of course, never lie) -- the industry players at this year's LBMA gathering walked out of the conference venue Tuesday night feeling a little less like gold bulls than they had going in.

According to a poll conducted at the close of the major metals event, market participants are expecting the yellow metal to trade at $2,019 an ounce in early November 2012 (when the next annual LBMA conference will be held).

Above $2,000 an ounce -- sounds relatively bullish, right?

Well, maybe not so much so when you consider that on the first day of the two-day conference, participants had generated an average forecast of $2,075 an ounce for next November.

The result was a surprise (actually, more of a shock) to most, not least UBS precious metals strategist Edel Tully, who, presenting the figures to the crowd, was left a little speechless.

As she pointed out, it's quite a rarity for delegates to come out of two days of chit-chat and speculation about little else than gold -- particularly in the current climate -- to find the wind taken out of their sails somewhat.

But, then again, with non-stop talk of gold at $2,000, followed by gold at $2,500; the European debt crisis and how we are significantly lacking in a resolution; and debates on why we surely aren't in a bubble, maybe it's only right that participants take a step back and keep their bullish fever in check.''

*This information is solely an excerpt of a third-party publication and is incomplete. Please subscribe to the referenced publication for the full article. This is not an offer to buy or sell precious metals. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances and understand the risk before making any investment decision.

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